Drought Occurrence Probability Analysis Using Multivariate Standardized Drought Index and Copula Function Under Climate Change

نویسندگان

چکیده

This study aims to investigate the effect of climate change on probability drought occurrence in central Iran. To this end, a new index called Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI) was developed, which is composed Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) and Soil Moisture (SSI). The required data included precipitation, temperature (from CRU TS), soil moisture ESA CCA SM product) monthly time scale for 1980–2016 period. Moreover, future were downloaded from CMIP6 models under latest SSPs-RCPs emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 SSP5-8.5) 2020–2056 Based normalized root mean square error (NRMSE), Cramer-von mises statistic (Sn), Nash Sutcliffe (NS) evaluation criteria, Galambos Clayton functions selected derive copula-based joint distribution both periods. results showed that more severe longer droughts will occur compared historical period particular SSP5-8.5 scenario. From derived return period, event with defined severity or duration happen shorter as In other words, indicated higher analysis revealed mild remain same, while it decrease extreme future.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Water Resources Management

سال: 2022

ISSN: ['0920-4741', '1573-1650']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03186-1